SUMMER IN THE WEST AND WINTER IN THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST
SUMMER IN THE WEST AND WINTER IN THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST
Been awhile since I have blogged. Work has gotten in the way, but I am back….and ready to inform all of you about what we can expect weather wise for the next 10-14 days. We have had record weather in California and for the rest of the country as well. 72 degrees was a high in NYC last week, and Chicago hasn’t had snow fall in January and February for the first time in 146 years. Amazing………Below are some highlights and what to expect for the rest of the month of March:
– The wet/cold pattern that has battered the West Coast/California for most of this winter is gone for the time being, and it is replaced by a very warm/dry 2 week period. Just as the warm/dry weather settles into the West Coast, the Midwest/Northeast is going to experience the last gasp of this winter, as below normal temps and a wintry mix of rain/snow start to effect those regions. This is depicted by the NOAA 6-10 Forecast below:
(Click to Enlarge)
This is the CPC 6-10 Day Temp forecast. Notice most of the Southwest to the Rockies are under high pressure and very warm. This is depicted in RED coloring.
(Click to enlarge)
This is the 6 to 10 day Precipitation forecast. Notice most of the weather is in the Northwest, Midwest and Northeast…….The Southwest is Dry and Warm. Why did the pattern shift? What should we expect for the rest of the month?
Inter-Seasonal Outlook:
When I look at the weather, I look at the Sea Surface Temps (SST). They dictate a lot as to what is going to happen Weather Wise. Take a look at the image below from March 6th:
(Click to enlarge)
Couple of notes on the above image:
– There is cold water in the Gulf of AK, which shows zero sign of the “Blob of Warm Water” which gave 5 years of drought in CA. This was replaced by warm water earlier in the winter in the Bering straits, that produced High Pressure and sent AR’s and the Jet right into California and the West Coast. On the flip side, the SST temps have cooled off as we head into Spring in the Bering Straits, and the pattern has now shifted further West into Siberia, hence, the West Coast will be under High Pressure for most of March, while the Midwest/Northeast will experience Winter through April
– Very warm water off the coast of the Northeast, which has changed the teleconnection patterns, and given the Northeast & Midwest an unusual warm weather this year winter until recently, has cooled off…hence, the cold air will be around for most, if not all of March in the Northeast!
– LA Nina has faded, with the cooling waters on the equator……which have dissipated. As you can see, another El Nino might be brewing off the west coast of South America.
This tells a lot of the story if you know what to look for. The SST in these areas control high and low pressure, and steer the jet stream accordingly. This year, everything was set up for some real weather on the West Coast. On the flip side, most of the country has had a mild winter…..well, that is forecasted to change this week. Look at the GFS model solution for the next week:
(click to enlarge)
As you can see, High pressure is setting up in Siberia again, and the West Coast will be under High pressure for the next 2+ weeks, and the Midwest/East Coast will be under Cold/Wintery conditions for the foreseeable future.
Outlook:
– For those on the West Coast for the next 2+ weeks. 90’s in the Valley and 80’s at the Beach. Mountains will have 50’s during the day and 30’s at night. RUNOFF IS GOING TO START, so those of you who are near the dams in question, be prepared!! No rain/snow in sight for the next 2+ weeks!!
– For those of you who are in the Midwest/Northeast, Rain/Snow will be coming your way. 40’s/20’s are going to be the norm for the next 2+ weeks, as this pattern will be around for most of March! Winter will go out like a lion!!!
– A pattern change might happen the last 7 days of March, but the models for this time of the year are not that reliable 10+ days out.
More updates as they become warranted!! Enjoy the Summer in CA!!!!
JM
