El Nino is Brewing in the Pacific…..What is she going to do??

Happy Holidays and happy first day of winter. I know it has been some time since I have written a discussion on this blog.  Life and the fires in California have consumed me, and my day time job for the past few months. Although I comment and discuss the weather on twitter, I know a lot of you are not on twitter. If you are, my handle is @realwxforecast

In this discussion, I would like to recap the past few months, discuss the holiday period and give my thoughts on what lies ahead to winter of 2019 for the US.

Fires – I have discussed the fires on twitter and with some of you personally. With climate change increasing our weather temps and volatility, extreme weather is going to be a normal way of life moving forward. Between dry/warm temps, people living in areas that are high risk, and extreme high winds/Santa Ana’s, fire season is going to be year round event. Most of you know that I am a risk management/insurance broker across the country. Over 10 of our clients have lost structures, homes and businesses in the Camp Fire and the Woosley Fire. My kids lost their camp in the Malibu hills, clients renting homes waiting to what lies ahead. It is a not a good situation. As our temps and climate changes, the fires will be a normal daily occurrence for those that are living in California, and/or the Western half of the US.

Winter Outlook – With a moderate El Nino brewing in the Pacific ocean, the weather throughout the US has been up and down. California, which mostly had a dry/warm fall, got some decent storms into the Sierra, even reaching down in SoCal. A cutoff low low pressure system even dumped 1 to 2 inches of rain/snow in SoCal, giving most areas average rain fall for the year and snow in the local mountains. On the flip side, the Northeast got hit with 4-6” of snow before Thanksgiving causing havoc in the NYC tri-state area . Ever since then, the temps have been above normal, and mostly dry with an occasional storm here and there.  However, there as been….Zero Snow!  As you can see on the 6-10 day CPC forecast, it is forecasted to be cold/dry on the West Coast, and wet/warm in the Northeast. Look for this pattern to continue into the new year, as it will be cold in the west with moderate smaller storms to effect California next week.

6-10 day CPC Forecast for the holiday week:

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Moving onto January, it looks to be a mixed bag. I believe the Polar Vortex will show it’s face and start to effect the Midwest/Northeast the first few weeks of January 2019. The European weeklies models are showing this below:

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This European EPS model is showing the PV to hit and effect US, all the way from the Midwest to the East Coast. If this verifies, there could be a major snow storm the first week or 2nd week of January. On the flip side, the west coast will be warm/dry and in danger of more fires if the winds pick up. Once the middle of January comes around, the models are all over the place, displacing and splitting the PV (Polar Vortex) to the West Coat and the East Coast.:

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Interesting stuff and something to monitor…..

On the other hand, the American Climate Forecast Model (CFS) is showing below normal temps for the Northeast, but warm in the west…..and the precipitation models are showing this. See Below. Very active in the West!!

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The screaming message here is the models are all over the map from the middle of January 2019 onward. The southern branch of the Jet stream, called the subtropical jet is very active due to El Nino. Although it is close to peaking, the effects of the jet stream and El Nino might not be felt for a few months. Teleconnection patterns are all over the place as to what is going to occur starting towards the middle of January. One thing for sure is the weather will be interesting to watch in the next few months.

I will update everyone on Monday, Xmas eve to see what the models are showing!  I will also discuss where the snow pack is in the Sierra and what climate change will do to it in the future. Have a good weekend and enjoy the shopping!

-JM