Quick Update: Pattern Change is Forthcoming!!!
Quick Update –
Pattern is in a transition period starting the end of this week. As I discussed in my last post, CA is going to turn very hot/dry/windy for at least 30 days starting on Friday/Saturday of this week. NorCal has a medium storm entering their area for tonight/tomorrow that will deliver 1 to 2 inches of rain in the lower elevation and 1′ to 2′ in the higher elevations, depending on elevations. After that storm, the Ridge Axis moves in the Eastern Pacific and high pressure will rule the southwest/West Coast. Temps will be into the 90’s in some valley/desert areas this weekend, then subside next week, only to have warmer temps Super Bowl Weekend. Blizzard conditions possible for Super Bowl weekend in MSP!!!
Midwest/Northeast will endure rain/snow/freezing rain throughout the 14 day period. See below:
(Click to Enlarge)
As you can see, CA and the Southwest will be under hot, dry temps with no rain in sight. The Polar Vortex (PV) will be in the midwest, with Blizzard conditions possible. Once the Ridge Axis establishes itself in the Eastern Pacific, that will determine if the Northeast will get the PV again in the beginning of Feb. With the AO going negative, my bet is for a 2 week period in February for the NYC area to get another 10″-20″ of snow, once the PV sets in! You are forewarned!!
Long Range – There are some models showing the pattern flipping again to some Rain/snow in CA the 2nd half of February, due to the MJO activity in the Indian Ocean! That is in fantasy land now, so stay tuned! I think CA is in big trouble water/snow pack wise, but the fat lady hasn’t sung yet. If this was March, then it would be one of the driest winters ever recorded. Do your rain dances if you are in CA. We need it!!! If you are in the Midwest/Northeast, get prepared for another round of snow and PV!!!
Talk soon……
Dr. J
